At the top of the draft, besides considering the ability of the player chosen, a team MUST consider what kind of value they can get out of their chosen player. When you pick early in the draft, you're committing to a considerable financial investment. Such being the case, you want to recoup on your investment as quickly as possible.
A star college player sells more tickets and builds hope within your community of fans. If you choose a lesser known player fans are less likely to be motivated to buy into that player until he proves himself.
The reality of drafting in football is that there's a tremendous amount of risk involved in selecting any player. You pay your coaches to develop any talent selected and the risk of injury exist at every position in football.
There's a current discussion about what the Carolina Panthers should do with the number one pick in the upcoming NFL draft. There may be players with equal or greater ability to Cameron Newton but I would argue there is not a single player more valuable than the most recent Heisman trophy winner.
Marcell Dareus, Patrick Peterson, Nick Fairly and Blaine Gabbert should all be considered by the Panthers but at the end of the day Cam Newton is the most viable option. The Panthers are a team that just hired Ron Rivera as their new head coach, he's demonstrated a proficiency to orchestrate successful defenses. The Panthers have the requisite talent in place and have demonstrated the ability to play good defense, I would expect a continuation of this prowess with the current talent in the fold. The Panthers are a better defensive team than they are offensive and therefore need significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball. This negates the need for a Dareus, Peterson or Fairly with all due respect to their abilities. (I think Fairly is the best of the three but also the riskiest selection).
The debate boils down to Newton and Gabbert in my opinion even though Peterson would be a tremendous asset against the high powered offenses in New Orleans and Atlanta. The Panthers posses a solid offensive line and a clock controlling running game, these are great assets to have when developing a young QB. What separates Newton from Gabbert is his ability to assist that line and running game with his legs, more so he aids the young WR's in Carolina.
Steve Smith is still one of the best WR's in the NFL can you imagine having to cover him for a second or two more when Newton buys time with his legs? An inaccurate passer, like Vince Young or Mike Vick or Donavan McNabb, is much improved on the run because he buys time for his WR's to separate. (That separation grows the window for said QB to throw into) The risk of injury is increased when those QB's scramble and head up field BUT if in truth Cam Newton is more like Big Ben Roethlisburger than those other three he can be taught to scramble to find the open receiver instead of scrambling to gain yards. This is something that can be taught and coached.
The Panthers have an opportunity to play offense similar to the Pittsburgh Steelers if they select Newton. They'll posses a dominant running game (that keeps the Saints and Falcons off the field) that allows their defense time to recover from all the attacking Ron Rivera likes to do. Ron is about getting rushers to the QB, he's done it in Chicago and San Diego (his last two stops).
Cam Newton is a much more accurate passer coming out of college than Vince Young, Mike Vick and Donovan McNabb were and he'll be playing with much better WRs than either of them started their careers with considering Steve Smith is still a top tier WR. There is a formula for success in the NFL with a QB possessing the ability to maneuver outside the pocket; Big Ben Roethlisburger is the example. When you top that off with the marketability of a Heisman trophy winner playing in the same region where he played his college ball, I believe you have to take Cam Newton with the first pick overall if you're the Carolina Panthers.
